Executive Summary
The world’s Muslim
population is expected to increase by about 35% in the next 20 years, rising
from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030, according to new population
projections by the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life.
Globally, the Muslim
population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim
population over the next two decades – an average annual growth rate of 1.5%
for Muslims, compared with 0.7% for non-Muslims. If current trends continue,
Muslims will make up 26.4% of the world’s total projected population of 8.3
billion in 2030, up from 23.4% of the estimated 2010 world population of 6.9
billion.
While the global Muslim
population is expected to grow at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population,
the Muslim population nevertheless is expected to grow at a slower pace in the
next two decades than it did in the previous two decades. From 1990 to 2010,
the global Muslim population increased at an average annual rate of 2.2%,
compared with the projected rate of 1.5% for the period from 2010 to 2030.
These are among the key
findings of a comprehensive report on the size, distribution and growth of the
global Muslim population. The report by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public
Life seeks to provide up-to-date estimates of the number of Muslims around the
world in 2010 and to project the growth of the Muslim population from 2010 to
2030. The projections are based both on past demographic trends and on
assumptions about how these trends will play out in future years. Making these
projections inevitably entails a host of uncertainties, including political
ones. Changes in the political climate in the United States or European
nations, for example, could dramatically affect the patterns of Muslim
migration.
If
current trends continue, however, 79 countries will have a million or more
Muslim inhabitants in 2030, up from 72 countries today.1 A majority
of the world’s Muslims (about 60%) will continue to live in the Asia-Pacific
region, while about 20% will live in the Middle East and North Africa, as is
the case today. But Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia as the country
with the single largest Muslim population. The portion of the world’s Muslims
living in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise; in 20 years, for example,
more Muslims are likely to live in Nigeria than in Egypt. Muslims will remain
relatively small minorities in Europe and the Americas, but they are expected
to constitute a growing share of the total population in these regions.
In the United States, for
example, the population projections show the number of Muslims more than
doubling over the next two decades, rising from 2.6 million in 2010 to 6.2
million in 2030, in large part because of immigration and higher-than-average
fertility among Muslims. The Muslim share of the U.S. population (adults and
children) is projected to grow from 0.8% in 2010 to 1.7% in 2030, making
Muslims roughly as numerous as Jews or Episcopalians are in the United States
today. Although several European countries will have substantially higher
percentages of Muslims, the United States is projected to have a larger number
of Muslims by 2030 than any European countries other than Russia and France.
In Europe as a whole, the
Muslim share of the population is expected to grow by nearly one-third over the
next 20 years, rising from 6% of the region’s inhabitants in 2010 to 8% in
2030. In absolute numbers, Europe’s Muslim population is projected to grow from
44.1 million in 2010 to 58.2 million in 2030. The greatest increases – driven
primarily by continued migration – are likely to occur in Western and Northern
Europe, where Muslims will be approaching double-digit percentages of the
population in several countries. In the United Kingdom, for example, Muslims
are expected to comprise 8.2% of the population in 2030, up from an estimated
4.6% today. In Austria, Muslims are projected to reach 9.3% of the population
in 2030, up from 5.7% today; in Sweden, 9.9% (up from 4.9% today); in Belgium,
10.2% (up from 6% today); and in France, 10.3% (up from 7.5% today).
Several factors account for
the faster projected growth among Muslims than non-Muslims worldwide.
Generally, Muslim populations tend to have higher fertility rates (more
children per woman) than non-Muslim populations. In addition, a larger share of
the Muslim population is in, or soon will enter, the prime reproductive years
(ages 15-29). Also, improved health and economic conditions in Muslim-majority
countries have led to greater-than-average declines in infant and child
mortality rates, and life expectancy is rising even faster in Muslim-majority
countries than in other less-developed countries.
Growing, But at a Slower
Rate
The growth of the global
Muslim population, however, should not obscure another important demographic
trend: the rate of growth among Muslims has been
slowing in recent decades and is likely to continue to decline over the next 20
years, as the graph below shows. From 1990 to 2000, the Muslim population grew
at an average annual rate of 2.3%. The growth rate dipped to 2.1% from 2000 to
2010, and it is projected to drop to 1.7% from 2010 to 2020 and 1.4% from 2020
to 2030 (or 1.5% annually over the 20-year period from 2010 to 2030, as
previously noted).
The declining growth rate
is due primarily to falling fertility rates in many Muslim-majority countries,
including such populous nations as Indonesia and Bangladesh. Fertility is
dropping as more women in these countries obtain a secondary education, living
standards rise and people move from rural areas to cities and towns.
The slowdown in Muslim
population growth is most pronounced in the Asia- Pacific region, the Middle
East-North Africa and Europe, and less sharp in sub-Saharan Africa. The only
region where Muslim population growth is accelerating through 2020 is the
Americas, largely because of immigration.
Falling birth rates eventually
will lead to significant shifts in the age structure of Muslim populations.
While the worldwide Muslim population today is relatively young, the so-called
Muslim “youth bulge” – the high percentage of Muslims in their teens and 20s –
peaked around the year 2000 and is now declining.
In 1990, more than
two-thirds of the total population of Muslim-majority countries was under age
30. Today, people under 30 make up about 60% of the population of these
countries, and by 2030 they are projected to fall to about 50%.
At the same time, many
Muslim-majority countries will have aging populations; between 2010 and 2030,
the share of people age 30 and older in these countries is expected to rise
from 40% to 50%, and the share of people age 60 and older is expected nearly to
double, from 7% to 12%.
Muslim-majority countries,
however, are not the only ones with aging populations. As birth rates drop and
people live longer all around the globe, the population of the entire world is
aging. As a result, the global Muslim population will remain comparatively youthful for decades to come. The
median age in Muslim-majority countries, for example, rose from 19 in 1990 to
24 in 2010 and is expected to climb to 30 by 2030. But it will still be lower
than the median age in North America, Europe and other more-developed regions,
which rose from 34 to 40 between 1990 and 2010 and is projected to be 44 in
2030. By that year, nearly three-in-ten of the world’s youth and young adults –
29.1% of people ages 15-29 – are projected to be Muslims, up from 25.8% in 2010
and 20.0% in 1990.
Other key findings of the
study include:
Worldwide
- Sunni Muslims will continue to make up an overwhelming majority of Muslims in 2030 (87- 90%). The portion of the world’s Muslims who are Shia may decline slightly, largely because of relatively low fertility in Iran, where more than a third of the world’s Shia Muslims live.
- As of 2010, about three-quarters of the world’s Muslims (74.1%) live in the 49 countries in which Muslims make up a majority of the population. More than a fifth of all Muslims (23.3%) live in non-Muslim-majority countries in the developing world. About 3% of the world’s Muslims live in more-developed regions, such as Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan.
- Fertility rates in Muslim-majority countries are closely related to women’s education levels. In the eight Muslim-majority countries where girls generally receive the fewest years of schooling, the average fertility rate (5.0 children per woman) is more than double the average rate (2.3 children per woman) in the nine Muslim-majority countries where girls generally receive the most years of schooling. One exception is the Palestinian territories, where the average fertility rate (4.5 children per woman) is relatively high even though a girl born there today can expect to receive 14 years of formal education.
- Fewer than half (47.8%) of married women ages 15-49 in Muslim-majority countries use some form of birth control. By comparison, in non-Muslim-majority, less-developed countries nearly two-thirds (63.3%) of all married women in that age group use some form of birth control.
Asia-Pacific
- Nearly three-in-ten people living in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 (27.3%) will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in 2010 (24.8%) and roughly a fifth in 1990 (21.6%).
- Muslims make up only about 2% of the population in China, but because the country is so populous, its Muslim population is expected to be the 19th largest in the world in 2030.
Middle East-North Africa
- The Middle East-North Africa will continue to have the highest percentage of Muslim-majority countries. Of the 20 countries and territories in this region, all but Israel are projected to be at least 50% Muslim in 2030, and 17 are expected to have a population that is more than 75% Muslim in 2030, with Israel, Lebanon and Sudan (as currently demarcated) being the only exceptions.
- Nearly a quarter (23.2%) of Israel’s population is expected to be Muslim in 2030, up from 17.7% in 2010 and 14.1% in 1990. During the past 20 years, the Muslim population in Israel has more than doubled, growing from 0.6 million in 1990 to 1.3 million in 2010. The Muslim population in Israel (including Jerusalem but not the West Bank and Gaza) is expected to reach 2.1 million by 2030.
- Egypt, Algeria and Morocco currently have the largest Muslim populations in the Middle East-North Africa. By 2030, however, Iraq is expected to have the second-largest Muslim population in the region – exceeded only by Egypt – largely because Iraq has a higher fertility rate than Algeria or Morocco.
Sub-Saharan Africa
- The Muslim population in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by nearly 60% in the next 20 years, from 242.5 million in 2010 to 385.9 million in 2030. Because the region’s non- Muslim population also is growing at a rapid pace, Muslims are expected to make up only a slightly larger share of the region’s population in 2030 (31.0%) than they do in 2010 (29.6%).
- Various surveys give differing figures for the size of religious groups in Nigeria, which appears to have roughly equal numbers of Muslims and Christians in 2010. By 2030, Nigeria is expected to have a slight Muslim majority (51.5%).
Europe
- In 2030, Muslims are projected to make up more than 10% of the total population in 10 European countries: Kosovo (93.5%), Albania (83.2%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (42.7%), Republic of Macedonia (40.3%), Montenegro (21.5%), Bulgaria (15.7%), Russia (14.4%), Georgia (11.5%), France (10.3%) and Belgium (10.2%).
- Russia will continue to have the largest Muslim population (in absolute numbers) in Europe in 2030. Its Muslim population is expected to rise from 16.4 million in 2010 to 18.6 million in 2030. The growth rate for the Muslim population in Russia is projected to be 0.6% annually over the next two decades. By contrast, Russia’s non-Muslim population is expected to shrink by an average of 0.6% annually over the same period.
- France had an expected net influx of 66,000 Muslim immigrants in 2010, primarily from North Africa. Muslims comprised an estimated two-thirds (68.5%) of all new immigrants to France in the past year. Spain was expected to see a net gain of 70,000 Muslim immigrants in 2010, but they account for a much smaller portion of all new immigrants to Spain (13.1%). The U.K.’s net inflow of Muslim immigrants in the past year (nearly 64,000) was forecast to be nearly as large as France’s. More than a quarter (28.1%) of all new immigrants to the U.K. in 2010 are estimated to be Muslim.
The Americas
- The number of Muslims in Canada is expected to nearly triple in the next 20 years, from about 940,000 in 2010 to nearly 2.7 million in 2030. Muslims are expected to make up 6.6% of Canada’s total population in 2030, up from 2.8% today. Argentina is expected to have the third-largest Muslim population in the Americas, after the U.S. and Canada. Argentina, with about 1 million Muslims in 2010, is now in second place, behind the U.S.
- Children under age 15 make up a relatively small portion of the U.S. Muslim population today. Only 13.1% of Muslims are in the 0-14 age group. This reflects the fact that a large proportion of Muslims in the U.S. are newer immigrants who arrived as adults. But by 2030, many of these immigrants are expected to start families. If current trends continue, the number of U.S. Muslims under age 15 will more than triple, from fewer than 500,000 in 2010 to 1.8 million in2030. The number of Muslim children ages 0-4 living in the U.S. is expected to increase from fewer than 200,000 in 2010 to more than 650,000 in 2030.
- About two-thirds of the Muslims in the U.S. today (64.5%) are first-generation immigrants (foreign-born), while slightly more than a third (35.5%) were born in the U.S. By 2030, however, more than four-in-ten of the Muslims in the U.S. (44.9%) are expected to be native-born.
- The top countries of origin for Muslim immigrants to the U.S. in 2009 were Pakistan and Bangladesh. They are expected to remain the top countries of origin for Muslim immigrants to the
U.S. in 2030.
About the Report
This report makes
demographic projections. Projections are not the same as predictions. Rather,
they are estimates built on current population data and assumptions about
demographic trends; they are what will happen if the current data are accurate
and the trends play out as expected. But many things – immigration laws,
economic conditions, natural disasters, armed conflicts, scientific
discoveries, social movements and political upheavals, to name just a few – can
shift demographic trends in unforeseen ways, which is why this report adheres
to a modest time frame, looking just 20 years down the road. Even so, there is
no guarantee that Muslim populations will grow at precisely the rates
anticipated in this report and not be affected by unforeseen events, such as
political decisions on immigration quotas or national campaigns to encourage
larger or smaller families.
The projections presented
in this report are the medium figures in a range of three scenarios – high,
medium and low – generated from models commonly used by demographers around the
world to forecast changes in population size and composition. The models follow
what is known as the cohort-component method, which starts with a baseline
population (in this case, the current number of Muslims in each country)
divided into groups, or cohorts, by age and sex. Each cohort is projected into
the future by adding likely gains – new births and immigrants – and subtracting
likely losses – deaths and emigrants. These calculations were made by the Pew
Forum’s demographers, who collaborated with researchers at the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria on the projections
for the United States and European countries.
The current population data
that underpin this report were culled from the best sources available on Muslims
in each of the 232 countries and territories for which the U.N. Population
Division provides general population estimates. Many of these baseline
statistics were published in the Pew Forum’s 2009 report, Mapping
the Global Muslim Population, which acquired and analyzed about
1,500 sources of data – including census reports, large-scale demographic
studies and general population surveys – to estimate the number of Muslims in
every country and territory. All of those estimates have been updated for 2010,
and some have been substantially revised. Since many countries are conducting
national censuses in 2010-11, more data is likely to emerge over the next few
years, but a cut-off must be made at some point; this report is based on
information available as of mid-2010. To the extent possible, the report
provides data for decennial years – 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030. In some
cases, however, the time periods vary because data is available only for
certain years or in five-year increments (e.g., 2010-15 or 2030-35).
The
definition of Muslim in this report is very broad. The goal is to count all
groups and individuals whoself-identify as Muslims. This includes Muslims who
may be secular or nonobservant. No attempt is made in this report to measure
how religious Muslims are or to forecast levels of religiosity (or secularism)
in the decades ahead.2
The main factors, or
inputs, in the population projections are:
- Births (fertility
rates)
- Deaths (mortality
rates)
- Migration (emigration
and immigration), and
- The age structure of the
population (the number of people in various age groups)
Related factors – which are
not direct inputs into the projections but which underlie vital assumptions
about the way Muslim fertility rates are changing and Muslim populations are
shifting – include:
Projections for 2010-2030 (ANALYSIS January 27, 2011)
23rd February 2013.
Disediakan oleh Hasliza Mohd Ali
(Exco Penyelidikan)
